HOW GROWTH IS TRANSLATING ON THE GROUND & IMPACTING INDIA'S CULTURE

HOW GROWTH IS TRANSLATING ON THE GROUND & IMPACTING INDIA's CULTURE

By Manoj Pokhriyal & Gurdip Singh

The celebrations of Christmas this year in the capital was a more widespread phenomena than perhaps ever before. The main mass was held as usual at the Sacred Heart Cathedral in the heart of the city and in the vicinity of the landmark institution, St Columbas' High School. Hordes of people thronged the Church right from the wee hours of the morning and the affair continued well past midnight. The faithful paid their respects to Virgin Mary, which has a statue adjoining the Cathedral, probably the biggest church in Delhi. It had the usual tableau of Jesus with his mother at the time of birth with shepherds surrounding him. There were Christmas carols and hymns from the Bible.

The celebrations of Christmas was not just confined to the Cathedral, but had its reverberations all over the city. The Santa Claus was everywhere and revellers wore the Christmas red caps. Outfits like the Archies did brisk business selling greeting cards and things which go with Christmas. The sales of confectionery shops too soared and in many places there were private parties to mark the celebrations. All the five star hotels had a Christmas tree as also many other hotels and restaurants. Christmas today is probably a better celebrated event in Delhi, than many of the festivals of Hindus and the many 'Gurupurabs' of the Sikhs, a fact regretted by the puritans of the Hindu and Sikh religion, who bemoan that Indian culture is giving way to Western influences. This is notwithstanding the fact that Christianity has deep roots in the Indian soil. The bigots have always been up against Christian missionaries as many of them have been converted from Hinduism to a religion which had its birth in the West. The fact of the matter is that conversions were a way of wriggling out of the rigid caste system, which provides no scope for social mobility. The reality is that no matter how many reform movements may have taken place in Hinduism, caste still remains in India, particularly in the rural areas. Where its influence has waned, it still comes into being at the time of marriages among Hindus and possibly Sikhs. What do these celebrations manifest about the economy?The gloomy view of the global economy and its impact on people does not exist in a great measure in a city like Delhi, which means that the people are feeling the warmth of the seven per cent plus growth projected for the current fiscal. While the benefits of this high growth have not percolated equally to all sections, yet the citizens of the capital are a beneficiary of this. This is all too apparent to the eye for in recent years there are many more cars on the roads with many more brands and sleek models launched by the world's best brands. There are more bars, more discos, more saloons, many more malls, banquet halls for marriages, where there is ostentatious and perhaps vulgar display of wealth, many more five star hotels, clubs, state-of-the-art flyovers, theatres giving way to multiplexes and now better quality roads, especially the Highways. Gone are the days when cars of just manufacturers plied on Indian roads-- Fiat and Ambassador.

The character of Indian cinema itself has undergone a sea change. The long winding love stories of the yesteryears are giving way to films where glamour has become the order of the day and the theme is dominated by violence, like the dirty West. In a sense the metamorphosis of the cinema is reflective of the economic changes that are taking place.For instance, the dominant character in the sixties was a black marketeer or a money lender, exploiting the poor farmers. Then there were movies made on the famines and spread of plague. Now the favourite heroine of the urban middle class man is a women who wears a dress which has something of an India, but also of the West. She must be free from the encumbrances of the orthodox Indian culture and should not also be too Western to take off everything. A song must be mostly in Hindi, but preferably with a smattering of English and possibly Punjabi. The musical notes must be loud with both Indian and Western flavour. Such a figure has come to be the dream girl of an average Indian urban middle class male, who also looks for such a woman in marriage.

In short, the culture of new India is a strange confluence of the traditional Indian values with a marked imprint of the West. Contrast this with the psyche of a European which in all probability will be a result of the cultural influences of that Continent, imbibing little from Asia, except perhaps Yoga, which is fast catching up in many parts of the World. All this is just the way the Indian economy is shaping up!Much of this has happened in the last few years and is linked to the advent of liberalisation when the big bang reforms were launched in 1991.
Delhi is also becoming a melting pot of cultures with people from almost all regions and religions of this continental sized country residing here. They mingle with each other without much acrimony at the same time imbibing each others cultures.The South Indian 'dosa' is as much a part of North Indian's diet as 'chapati' is popular with South Indians.The South Indian relish 'lassi,' a drink made by the churning of curd and a hot favourite of the Punjabis.Yet people from the regions are not willing to part with their cultures. For instance, a South Indian white collared worker will wear a pant, a tie, and a coat in office, but when he reaches home, he straight away changes to 'mundu' or 'lungi', a cloth tied loosely below the waist, and is the traditional dress of South India.He will demand coffee as his favourite drink to get rid of his fatigue and when it comes to marriage of his daughter, he would prefer a groom from the same caste.Inter-community marriages are on the rise but a marriage between a Hindu and a Muslim or Christian is still frowned upon.In the hinterland, such marriages outside the religion are often met with violence. While in Delhi this may not the case, it has still not become cosmopolitan enough to accept these with grace.The joint family is giving way to nuclear family and now many more women are a part of the workforce as compared to some years ago. Such are the social consequences of economic change. The new found money of IT professionals, software engineers, the executives in companies and what have you find its existence in the market place, with almost all brands now available in metros like Delhi.The 'Saree' has subtly given way to pants and shirts, a change resulting from the onslaught of satellite television and high pressure advertisement by the consumer industry. The mineral water revolution and the sports shoe industry becoming a household affair are an example of how demand is created by Corporates where none exists. Not too long ago confectionery shops like the 'Wengers' located in Connaught Place was visited by the well off of the city. Now, it is a crowded place during most parts of the day with people from all hues of class partaking its food stuffs.

Yet Delhi has no dominant theme or character of its own, unlike a city like Bhopal or Hyderabad.There is the Raisina Hills, the Parliament House, the sprawling Rastrapati Bhawan, reflective of colonial India, once the seat of British administration.Then there is Chanakyapuri, which houses most of the Embassies, with well laid out lawns and lush buildings,There remain the vestiges of the Mughal Empire, the many tombs like the Himayaun and Lodhi tomb and poorly maintained buildings of that period spread across the city. There is the Jama Masjid and the Red Fort opposite to it. The Qutab Minar was built by a ruler from the slave dynasty and is visited as much by tourists as locals. There are many mosques in Delhi and many cemeteries of the muslims. There are places of worship of Buddhists and even Parsis. South Delhi is a place where the rich reside with many Western style food courts and markets which house bars and restaurants.East Delhi, which has seen the maximum development in recent years, is a highly commercialised place with recent entrants in its residential areas who thought it was the only way to remains in the capital, with real estate prices touching the roof. It does not have a well defined architecture and development has been almost haphazard if not chaotic. This cannot be said either of Chanakyapuri or South Delhi.West Delhi is where most of the Punjabis reside and in many areas there are huge houses and where the culture of nova rich is all too apparent.Little has changed in old Delhi with its dilapidated buildings, 'havelies,' old shops, rickshaw pullers and 'tangas' ( a carriage driven by a horse), places of worship of different religions and where the inhabitants are quite a few from the muslim community.The metro has changed life in Delhi enabling high physical mobility and lesser crowd on the congested Delhi roads.In recent years, business has grown phenomenally in the capital and old commercial areas like Daryaganj, have given way to state-of-the-art offices located in the NCR region, like Gurgaon and Noida.Given the high prices of real estate, the working population, especially the white collared workers, have shifted their residences to the adjoining NCR region.It is thus not enough to just look at growth but equally important to see how growth is translating itself on the ground. The culture of a city is a result of its traditional influences and the penetration of the West. And the degree to which it has exposure to each of these will dictate the dominant character of that city.Even the rural areas are not immune to this with many households having colour televisions, mobile phones, scooters and even cars. Westernisation and liberalisation have left their imprint only to a limited extent on rural India.

At a time when the new year is about to set in and the Christmas has just passed by, a time honoured message of India's wise men needs to be echoed across the globe--'Vasudevai kutumbakam'--which is like the Christian message of peace and goodwill toward all men.A global economy and the global society is perhaps looking for a messiah like Jesus Christ, which will find a solution to their manifold economic, social and political problems, including terrorism and drug addiction. Such a person may not appear on the scene, but everyone has a choice to become like Jesus and solve his problems and those of the society.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

INTERIM BUDGET 2009

To be or not to be? A see-saw battle between growth, elections

New Delhi, Feb 15 (UNI) The Interim Budget to be presented tomorrow in the Lok Sabha by acting Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee is expected to have continued focus on growth to ward off the impact of the global slowdown, lacking, by and large, the glow of a pre-election bonanza, while ensuring that the effect of the unsavoury economic developments minimally impact the vulnerable sections of society.

Contrary to the widespread public perception that this being the last Budget ahead of the General Elections, now just a few months away, not to speak of the roaring optimism in the Congress corridors, it may not be a purely vote-catching affair, highly-placed sources said.

The sources said the entire exercise has been worked out keeping in mind the need to give a boost to areas which have better employment generation potential and which are geared towards improving the lot of the rural population.

Sectors, which have high employment potential, and others, which are of a high capital intensive nature, have already been identified and given a thrust in the two stimulus packages announced by the government. These are the sectors which would be given an enhanced allocation, while other sectors irrespective of their import or relevance, may find their allocation at the same level as last year, the sources said.

This may have incurred the wrath of the political heavyweights who man these Ministeries, but a government, led by economists, has found it difficult to ignore the economic logic and compulsions of the difficult situation staring in the face of the nation, not to mention the global community.

The sources in this regard cite the instance of health and education, which may find their allocations at standstill level.

The major gainers in the Budget exercise would be the much-hyped and now publicised (the compelling logic of elections in a loud democracy like India) which are also the cardinal subjects of the National Common Minimum Programme (NCMP) like the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme which are slated for the lion's share among the enhanced allocations.

The Ministry of Rural Development is likely to see an allocation of about Rs 55,150 crore, up from the current level of Rs 38,500 crore.

The flagship programmes of the UPA government, which were also the beneficiaries of stimulus packages, collectively are likely to get an amount of Rs 1,23,000 crore -- a hefty hike of more than 36 per cent as compared to the allocation last fiscal.

It is increasingly becoming clear that the government would stick to its earlier pronouncement on not going in for a third stimulus package this fiscal, while cleverly building it in the Budget itself.

All critical sectors of the economy which have already been allocated additional funds would continue to draw more monies in the Interim Budget, too,

Despite the slowdown and a poor performance on the excise front resulting from the downslide of the manufacturing sector, government revenues are set to grow by 15 per cent.

Now consider the logic of the policymakers. Flagship programmes, including NREGA, by benefiting the poor would generate additional incomes in their hands. The poorer sections have a higher propensity to consume, would by generating additional consumption and incomes would have a multiplier effect on the National Income and production. This is good old Keynesianism at work in a depressed economy.

Its added appeal in a country like India is that it would also bridge the rich-poor gap, which is a source of embarrassment in a rapidly growing economy like India. The economy, now poised to grow at seven per cent this fiscal, despite the backlash of the global meltdown, would still be the second fastest in the global system, whose growth is projected at 0.5 per cent in 2008-09, a virtual static position.

In India, the gap between the rich and the poor is indeed stark with a hopeless record on Human Development Indices, the Budget intentionally or as an unintended consequence, would end up bridging this historical injustice to the vast masses, whose condition leaves much to be desired.

The economists in the government--and most know who they are—do not want any obstacle in the efforts to counter the slowdown. The Budget is likely to see direct incentives for sectors where sickness needs to be checked.

As part of this strategy, the Budget is likely to witness an increased allocation to the Ministry of Heavy Industries for tackling the problem of sick or not-so-sick PSUs. The funds for restructuring of PSUs would be in the vicinity of Rs 3,200 crore.

Agriculture and animal husbandry are likely to witness a major hike in their allocation up from Rs 1,760 crore to Rs 6,900 crore.

However, urban transport may see a fall in its allocation from Rs 2,870 crore in the current year to Rs 1,560 crore in 2009-10. Another loser in this game of losers and winners or snakes and ladders, as some call it, is expected to be Housing and Urban Development Corporation (HUDCO), whose allocation may go down by as much as Rs 1,000 crore.

The Ministries, whose allocations are expected to be at the same level as last year, are those relating to Minority Affairs, Textiles and Tourism.

Surprisingly, the allocation on skill development is expected to go down from Rs 300 crore to Rs 50 crore.

The new year will see the introduction of Unique Identification Cards with the Budget allocating a sizeable amount for this purpose. There is likely to be a continued thrust on exports and infrastructure, the first a victim of the global meltdown and the second a necessity to ward it off.

Sources say a unique feature of the Interim Budget will be measures of a sustainable nature to prepare the economy for the exigencies of the global economy going further down the drain.

The last Budget of the UPA government comes at a time when the world economy is facing its most difficult times ever since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The Chief architect of the revival of the Western economies was the wizard of the century, Lord J M Keynes, a multi-faceted personality who left his mark on history. So powerful was the logic of his theory that countries today again in a similar situation resort to his wisdom.

But the Budget also comes at a time when the General Elections are knocking on the doors. In a democracy like India, the logic of elections can never be ignored, for survival comes first and everything else later.

But unlike the Railway's Vote-on- Account, Lalu's populist train moved faster. Perhaps, that was always the case for the General Budgets have been different.

The most interesting dimension of the Interim Budget will be to see how it does the balancing act. Mr Pranab Mukherjee is known to be a seasoned politican, a dexterous person and also an old hand at economic management. His skills will be on test once again tomorrow.




GENERAL BUDGET

Def. spending up 34%, hike in flagship programme to woo masses

New Delhi , Feb 16 (UNI) In a clearly election oriented strategy, the Interim Budget 2009-10 today hiked Defence spending by an unprecedented 34 per cent to Rs 1,41,703 crore and enhanced allocations to flagship programmes.

However, no new stimulus package or changes in the tax structure were announced in the Budget presented by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee in the Lok Sabha.

The Budget saw nearly 15 per cent of the total spend of Rs 9,53,231 crores being allocated to the Defence sector. The message that the government intended to give to the people was that the security of the nation is the prime concern in the wake of terror strikes like the recent Mumbai attacks.

Observers say this could take the sting out of the BJP election plank that the government was soft on terrorism that was the most formidable threat to the country.

While there was hardly any announcement of new programmes, the allocation to certain key Flagship Programmes as well as those outlined in the National Common Minimum Programme (NCMP) has been enhanced, with a view to woo the rural masses. For instance, spending on National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) was given a major hike as also the allocation to agriculture.

The only two new schemes that found a place in the Budget were Indira Gandhi National Widow Pension and Indira Gandhi National Disability Pension Scheme.

A key highlight of Mr Mukherjee's speech was an extension of interest subsidies to debt-hit farmers, one of the first measures in the Budget.

He also announced that the India Infrastructure Finance Company will raise Rs 10,000 crore from the market by end of March 2009. India Infrastructure Finance Company will finance 60 per cent of commercial loans in private public partnership in critical projects, he said. The organisation is to raise Rs 30,000 crore from the market in the next fiscal year.

The Finance Minister refrained from tinkering with tax and duty rates in the Budget and increased by a huge allocation of Rs 30,100 crore to government's flagship rural employment programme and many other schemes in a bid which would also help counter the economic slowdown.

Mr Mukherjee projected a smaller budget deficit next year, leaving to the next government that may be voted in by May to decide on another stimulus package.

The budget shortfall will narrow to 5.5 per cent of gross domestic product by March 31, 2010 from an estimated 6 per cent in the current fiscal year, Mr Mukherjee said.

He said the new government will have to increase spending by as much as one per cent of GDP to protect Indian economy from a global recession that may continue through the year.

Justifying the status quo on the tax structure, Mr Mukherjee said ‘’constitutional propriety’’ demanded the government did not announce new tax rates or policies in the Budget.

The statement was aimed at obtaining Parliament’s approval for spending in the first four months of the next fiscal year.

Projecting a GDP growth rate of 7.1 per cent for 2008-09, Mr Mukherjee indicated a much higher level of fiscal deficit of 6 per cent of the GDP.

The below the line fiscal deficit would be of the magnitude of 1.5 per cent of the GDP, taking the total deficit to 7.5 per cent of GDP.

The Budget did not meet either the approval of the industry nor the stock markets, or the political parties for that matter.

The opposition charged that the measures would not get the economy out of the slowdown phase. Mr Mukherjee has lost a critical opportunity to take the economy out of the morass that it finds itself in they said.

The Budget was aimed at political gains in view of the General Election just a few months from now they added.

Industry saw a policy paralysis for the next few months, the only move possible being in the realm of monetary policy.

The benchmark Sensitive index plummeted 3.4 per cent to 9305.45 on the Bombay Stock Exchange as the players felt that the government had announced no new incentives to address the problems of sagging sectors.

Taking into account of vows of export community, the government extended interest subvention of two per cent for the entire year.

The slowdown has impacted on the government's revenue with tax collection being projected lower by Rs 60,000 crore than the Budget Estimates.

Through the Interim Budget, the government seeks to obtain a sanction from Parliament to incur expenditure in the months before the new government comes to power. The Budget for the full financial year starting from April 1, 2009 will be presented once the new government is elected.

The increased spending necessitated by the two stimulus package and large subsidy pay outs will have to be funded through borrowings. Credit rating agencies have warned that a rise in the deficit would lead to rating downgrades and deter investors from buying Indian debt.

Mr Mukherjee said there was need to accelerate reforms, mostly in the financial system to get back to the nine per cent sustainable economic growth. This was a mere exhortion, devoid of any concrete action.

Reiterating that there will no new fiscal stimulus package for the current fiscal, the government, however, gave an assurance that it will act as and when required to give a push to the economy.

The government said that it has sought 4.2 billion dollars additional assistance from the World Bank, of which three billion dollars would be for recapitalisation of Public Sector Banks.

The fund from the World Bank for recapitalisation of banks will have its play in the next two years and beyond to assure that their CRAR does not fall below ten per cent.

Officials said the government would raise Rs 45,000 crore in consultation with the Reserve Bank of India to fund enhanced government expenditure. This would not be in the nature of market borrowings, but its mode was being worked out.

The assistance of 4.2 billion dollars from The World Bank is intended to be used for the fiscal 2009-10 and the monies can be spent in the subsequent years.

The package from the World Bank has been necessitated to ward off the negative impact on the Indian economy of the global slowdown.

Observers say a confident Congress-led government riding high on the recent State-election results, choose to play safe in the Interim Budget. The last public pronouncement on its financial strategy was merely intended at creating another pro-'aam addmi' slogan that would help it draw public sentiments in their favour.

They said the fact that Mr Mukherjee chose to link defence spending with the Mumbai attacks clearly meant that the UPA Government would go to the masses saying the government's prime concern was social and defence security, perhaps more than economic liberalisation.

Political pundits say the master stroke of the budget exercise is that Mr Mukherjee kept tax incentives out. By doing so while the government may have temporarily displeased the industry, but it will provoke the media to talk just about its pro- rural development strategy and the security imperatives.

Dichotomically, Railway Minister Lalu Prasad, who is the unquestioned leader of the RJD and a coalition partner, did not follow the same strategy. The pundits say Mr Prasad is not as comfortable as Congress in getting a fresh mandate, facing tough competition from his rival Nitish Kumar, who seemingly has transformed Bihar.

The shrewdness of the economist-led government lies in the fact that Flagship Programme got a major boost as much as for reasons of equity as part of the stimulus package. Not without reason, Mr Mukherjee ended his speech by saying that he had no doubt that when the time comes, people will recognise the ''hand that steered the country through difficult time and made 'Aam Admi' as the focus of the development process.''


RAILWAY BUDGET

A populist Interim budget slashes fares 2%; 43 new trains & more

New Delhi, Feb 13 (UNI) With General Elections around the corner, Lalu's populist train moved faster, slashing passenger fares by two per cent almost across the board, imposing no new freight charges, launching 43 new trains and extending another 14 in the Interim Railway Budget presented today in the Lok Sabha.

A fast-growing and modern India is to see more bullet trains like in Europe and work to commence soon on the Eastern Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC).

Typical of his style, Railway Minister Lalu Prasad's hour-long speech was sprinkled with wit and humour as it laid to rest the speculation whether an interim budget can bring about any new proposals. In a way, it had the makings of a full-fledged budget, which gave an opportunity to the Opposition to lambast the Railway Minister for presenting a "directionless budget which was neither full nor an half, but a vote budget."

In a please-all affair, Lalu brought about a two per cent reduction in fares for tickets costing more than Rs 50, including second class and sleeper class tariffs of all Mail, Express and ordinary trains.

Fares of all AC first class, AC-II and III tiers and AC Chair Car have also been reduced by two per cent, apparently to ward off the threat of competition from low-cost airlines.

To pander to the common man, the Minister announced reduction in fares of ordinary passenger trains by Re one, for fares upto Rs 50 for a journey more than ten kilometres.

The last budget of the UPA government also saw the announcement of several measures to improve passenger amenities, but surprisingly nothing for the elderly or the disabled as well as no further moves towards creating infrastructure for the 2010 Commonwealth Games.

The 'turnaround guru' who now has many admirers in the West, projected a cash surplus before dividend at Rs 19,320 crores.

While the stock market gave a thumbs up paradoxically to the election-oriented budget, lifting the sombre mood of the Bombay Stock Exchange by a stupendous 168 points rise, captains of industry were critical that an opportunity has been missed of bringing down freight rates to help the business community tide over the morass it finds itself in because of global economic meltdown.

The plan outlay has been pegged at Rs 37,905 crores, but the implementation of the Sixth Pay Commission Report by the Public Sector behemoth will see Railways bearing an additional burden of Rs 13,500 crores, increasing the operating ratio to 88.3 per cent, a figure much higher than that of last year.

The reduction in fares will cost the Railways a whopping Rs 700 crores.

In defence of the budget, officials said the vote-on-account of the Railway Ministry has a lot for everybody and an impetus formall-round growth.

They said as per the practice, the vote on account does not have major policy pronouncements as a full-fledged budgetary exercise will be undertaken by the new Government in July.

The budget raised hopes that another fiscal stimulus package is on the offing in the Interim General Budget on Monday, which may include tax rate cuts.

In the customary press conference after the presentation of the budget, Mr Prasad put up a stout defence saying that the reduction in fares was not with an eye on elections, but in line with what he has done in his five past budgets.

He also denied the charge that the budget was Bihar-centric as what had sought to be been done was only a correcton of the historic mistake of ignoring his backward State.

Unfortunately for Mr Prasad, the presentation of the rail budget in the Rajya Sabha was marked by noisy scenes and slogan-shouting as an aghast BJP chose to highlight the issue of former Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha being attacked in Jharkhand.

The proposals entail starting a Bullet train service between Delhi and Patna. A pre-feasibility study of the project is to be carried out in the near future.

This would be in addition to the bullet train projects already announced between Delhi-Amritsar, Ahmedabad-Mumbai-Pune, Hyderabad-Vijayawada-Chennai, Chennai-Bangalore-Ernakulam and Howrah-Haldia.

The Minister said after commencement of the work on Eastern Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC) near Dehri-on-Sone earlier this month, work on the Western DFC will begin this month itself.

After the launch of the first train service in the Kashmir valley recently between Anantnag and Rajwansher, another service is to be started between Baramullah and Qazigund.

The 43 new trains, which include four 'Garib Raths,' pertain to all parts of the country. These include Secunderabad-Manuguru Superfast (Daily) Mumbai-Karwar Superfast (Tri-weekly), Bhopal-Lucknow Junction Garib Rath Express (Weekly), Ajmer-Bhagalpur via Delhi Garib Rath Express (Bi-Weekly), Nizamuddin-Bangalore via Kacheguda Rajdhani Express (Tri-weekly) Barauni-Delhi Jan Sadharan Superfast (Bi-weekly) Mumbai-Varanasi Superfast (Daily), Mysore-Yesvantpur Express (Daily) Jamalpur-Gaya Passenger Korapur-Rourkela Express via Rayagada (Daily) Agra-Ajmer Superfast (Daily) Sitamarhi-Patna Link Service (Daily) Tiruchchirapalli-Madurai Express (Daily) Mumbai-Bikaner Superfast (Bi-weekly) Agra-Lucknow Junction Shatabdi Express (Daily) Gandhidham-Kolkata Superfast (Weekly) New Delhi-Guwahati Rajdhani Express via Bhagalpur (Weekly) Howrah-Delhi Link Service via Azimganj-Bhagalpur (Weekly) Sitamarhi-Delhi Garib Rath Express via Patna (Weekly) Ranchi-Patna Jan Shatabdi (Daily) Jhansi-Chhindwara Superfast (Bi-weekly) NewDelhi-Guwahati Rajdhani Express via Muzaffarpur (Weekly) Varanasi-Jammu Tawi Superfast (Daily) Gwalior-Bhopal Intercity Express via Guna (5 days a week) Howrah-Haridwar Superfast (5 days a week) Jammu Tawi-Darbhanga Garib Rath Express (Weekly) Mumbai-Jodhpur Express (Weekly).

The trains whose extensions were announced include
5761/5762 Ranchi - Alipurduar Express to Guwahati, 9269/9270 Porbandar - Bapudham Motihari Express to Muzaffarpur, 1471/1472 Jabalpur - Bhopal Express to Laxmibai Nagar, Indore, 6865/6866 Ernakulam - Tiruchchirapalli Express to Nagore 3155/3156 Kolkata - Darbhanga Mithilanchal Express to Sitamarhi and 2175/2176 Howrah - Gwalior Chambal Express to Mathura.

Frequency of certain trains was also announced. These include
2423/2424 New Delhi - Guwahati/Dibrugarh Rajdhani Express from five days to six days. 2443/2444 Bhubaneshwar - New Delhi Rajdhani Express from two days to four days, 2211/2212 Nizamuddin – Bapudham Motihari - Garib Rath from weekly to Bi-weekly, 7091/7092 Secunderabad - Patna Express from Bi-weekly to Daily, 2111/2112
Amravati - Mumbai Amravati Express from Tri-weekly to Daily and 2957/2958 Ahmedabad - New Delhi Rajdhani Express from six days to Daily.

There is also a proposal to construct nine Railway Overbridges and Under Bridges during the year.

The Minister delved at length on the achievements of the Railways during the tenure of the UPA government, one of these being significant reduction in rail accidents from 325 in 2003-4 to 194 last year.

Typical of his style, Mr Prasad's speech was peppered with some Urdu and Hindi couplets, as well as rustic remarks and had a befitting ending, with the Minister saying that the UPA government was leaving the public sector behemoth on a ''rock solid foundation.''

Gurdeep Singh

Head of Business & Economy and Vice-President FFW

Gursingh111@rediffmail.com

Economic Survey skipped; FM & PM discuss Interim Budget

New Delhi, Feb 15 (UNI) This year's budget routine exercise will miss the customary Economic Survey, though acting Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee will make a statement on the 'outlook of the economy' as part of the Interim Budget speech tomorrow.
The Budget, being of an Interim nature, will skip the Economic Survey, as has normally been the case with Vote-on-Account or Interim Budgets historically.

The Economic Survey, apart from making a statement on the state of the economy also hints at policy initiatives in the offing. An Interim Budget, because of its very character, does not do so.

However, Mr Mukherjee will make a statement on the state of the economy as well as the outlook of the economy, highly placed sources in the government told UNI.

The sources said the Minister's address will last for about 50 minutes.

While the Railway Budget was presented by the charismatic Railway Minister Lalu Prasad at 1200 hrs, the General Interim Budget will be taken up in the Lok Sabha at 1100 hrs.

The press conference with Finance Ministry officials is slated for 1330 hrs.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has approved the Interim Budget.
Dr Singh went through the Interim Budget related papers and after formally signing them, forwarded them to President Pratibha Devisisngh Patil.

The Prime Minister also approved Mr Mukherjee's speech relating to the Budget.
Mr Mukherjee, who holds the charge of External Affairs, apart from being the acting Finance Minister, met the Prime Minister and discussed budget-related issues with him.

By:
Gurdeep Singh
Head of Business & Economy and Vice-President FFW
Gursingh111@rediffmail.com

Global turmoil an opportunity to bridge gap between rich & poor

A friend of mine narrated this story to me. He was escorting his classmate, a blind person, to his hostel room in St Stephen's College. On reaching the room my friend groped to find out where the light was. The blind student suddenly said he did not want the light, He knew exactly where things were. But my friend could not do without the light.

History is replete with instances where people have converted difficult phases or situations to their advantage.

The moral of the story is that the blind man had converted adversity into an opportunity.

The global slump, too, needs to be converted into an opportunity.
It can be used to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor within the country. Or so it appears is going to be the inevitable logic of the situation. It is also an opportunity for India and other developing countries to bridge the wide gulf between the industrialised world and the emerging markets.

It is argued in this piece that the developing countries have been affected by the global slowdown for no fault of theirs. The crisis, which has its epicentre in the United States, has seen the contagion spread far and wide. India is a victim of this global crisis.

But will it be wise to find solutions in isolation or remain a part of the global system. If the Western world and its allies want to avoid the trap of the world getting into isolationism, then they will have to bail out the ailing developing world. Perhaps, as never before the concept of globalisation is being challenged.

This has repercussions elsewhere. The reflection of this will be seen in the World Trade Organisation fora.

Some other comments are in order.

The current economic crisis has not only jolted the world but also warranted that the economists go back to their textbooks to find out where they have gone wrong. The magnitude of the crisis has left few in doubt that all is not well with the world of economics and a new economic model needs to be be evolved if the world has to stave itself from similar happenings.

The meltdown, downturn or slowdown, whatever one may call it, it has already left economists confounded and in soul-searching mode. Trillions of dollars have been pumped into crisis-ridden America without knowing what impact it will have. The world seems to be in desperate haste to save itself from collapse of financial structures which could cause irreparable damage to society.

Global efforts visible so far have brought forward another dichotomy. How is it possible that the very people who were responsible for this mess have been given the responsibility of repairing the damage? Already all Government treasuries are under pressure, millions of jobs have been lost, development processes have come to a halt and yet no conclusive cause of failure has been established.

Sub-prime crisis, the most commonly attributed reason for the current crisis, has emerged as the most important reason for its origin in the United States. It then spreads to the financial sector and has now brought under its fold the entire real economy. This is notwithstanding the fact that developing countries like India are claiming that its effect on them would not be very acute as regulatory mechanisms are well established to take care.

The grassroots realities are different. India and China till recently were considered to be doing extremely well and all set to challenge strong economies like the United States and many European countries in future. In a matter of just six months, things look different.
Both India and China have already pumped in crores of currency into the system, yet growth will be faltering in both the neighbouring giants.

Interestingly, few till now are speaking about any faults with either the economic planning or the model being pursued in these countries even though the downturn is getting deeper. With a virtual collapse staring them in their face.

Apparently, it is clear that globalisation has harmed them – a theory so strongly propagated by global thinktanks. India, for example, has been a victim of large-scale withdrawal of peripheral investments by leading foreign investors. Thousands of crores of rupees have been lost in the stock markets because of unchecked withdrawals by Foreign Institutional Investors. In the name of fair play, the Indian
Government has chosen not to react, probably to keep their interest alive in the Indian market.

But this does raise an important issue -- would the US government react in a similar fashion if various other governments decide to withdraw funds from American securities?

Would it be a mute spectator to such an affair just as the Indian Government has been?

Another issue that surfaces in the midst of the snowballing crisis has been that if problems of developing countries are owing to failure of developed economies, what have they done to save them. Everybody seems to be fending for himself. Is this the type of globalisation that developed countries are striving to reach? Does it mean that globalisation was meant to serve the interests of developed economies primarily because they are saturated and need external avenues to maintain their growth.

The present crisis has raised two fundamental issues – should the world continue with unbridled globalisation or do developing countries need to insulate themselves from industrialised economies and how can social behaviour of extreme lust for profits be inbuilt into economic models.

The failure of World Trade Organisations to make countries reach a multi-lateral agreement needs to be taken as an indication of developing countries refusing to take dictates from developed countries. The failure of international institutions, which surfaced as an outcome of economic crisis the world faced in the 1930s, has further firmed up the opinion that there cannot be constructive cooperation between the haves and the have nots.

The sanctity of the WTO would certainly come into question in the near future.

India has emerged as the leader of the developing world in the WTO fora. It has been leading the boxing match right from Doha Ministerial onwards which primarily include Cancun and Hong Kong. India is now perceived differently by the developed countries in all matters pertaining to international trade negotiations, not only because of its acceptance as an economy of consequence but also because it wields significant influence among poor nations in multilateral trade talks.

Many in the developing world would expect India to take more forthright stand at all future negotiations and not toe the line of the West, as sometimes it is perceived to be doing. The poor nations expect India to be a bulwark on onslaught of unbridled globalization professed by some Western nations.

From whatever is available about the roots of the present crisis, it is clear that individuals' desire to create more avenues of income and financial institutions' resolve to expand business even at the cost of increased risks has played a major role. This phenomenon would naturally not be covered under any economic model.
Developing economies like India have so far not felt this problem but cannot rule it out for all time to come.

Americans may take some time to come out or witness a temporary fall in their consumption pattern but they are well-placed to absorb this shock. But can countries like India have inherit strength to absorb shocks of such intensity and magnitude.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told the G-20 Summit in Washington recently that enlightened self-interests expected of economic actors, in a capitalistic society was not visible. It should, thus,leave no one in doubt that those working out future models would need to take this into consideration to ensure credibility.

The analysis about the impact of the global slump on the Indian economy varies from catastrophic fallout to temporary and minor downturn.

What is already on the horizon is that the saving and investment pattern have already been affected with foreign investments being out of gear -- albeit temporarily. In such a situation corporate savings are bound to be diverted towards capital investments. This would bring down the capital holdings or wealth of the rich, who would do so to keep their industrial empires going.

It is, however, incumbent that the Indian States maintain the pace of development and those vulnerable sections of society are protected. This would obviously require diversion of the states' resources towards social sectors with better targeting for people with low per capita income. Enhanced resources for the infrastructure sector would also contribute to growth and employment creation. For instance, building of highways would ensure that growth moves away from metros into the hinterlands.

Surprisingly, it appears that the government is no longer concerned about the monies that it proposes to spend on these sectors, even though the fiscal deficit target will be going for a toss. No longer there is talk in the government that such funds are a constraint and very ambitious programmes are being worked out to ensure social justice and infrastructure development.

The entire cycle when completed -- liquidation of wealth for investment purposes and thrust on social sectors infrastructure --when completed will reduce the gap between the rich and the poor and pave the way for more sustainable development.

The basic problem the Indian economy and industrial development face is the small base on which it is pegged. It remains largely an underdeveloped economy. Re-engineering the development process in favour of the poor will enhance not only the consumption of these segments but prop consumption expenditure for the entire economic system.

The slowdown of the industrialised world at an enhanced pace in economic activity in emerging markets will bridge the gap between the rich and the poor nations.

Unfortunately, the Brandt Commission report on transfer of resources from the rich to the poor nations remains unimplemented for lack of political will on the part of the powerful countries, which only care for the markets of the developing world.
The panel had suggested that the rich nations transfer 0.7 per cent of the GNP to the developing world.

The United Nations Millennium Development Goals also remain unfulfilled with the question mark as to whether they will ever be fulfilled. Nor there is any recent great effort on the part of the industrialised countries to shift resources to the emerging markets in turmoil as the consequence of their actions. Protagonists of the globalisation argument would say that it is too short a time to assess the outcome of the G-20 Summit while sceptics believe that there was much talk but little action.

All said and done, more has been said than done for no real resource transfer has thus far taken place.

Global economic strategists are keeping a close watch on what India and China do to get out of their present difficulties for it is not without reason that they are the preferred investment destinations not only for the present but also for the future.

To remain indifferent to the problems of the poor can perhaps both be tempting and seductive. It is so much easier to look away from victims of collapse to avoid rude interruptions to one's work, one's dreams and one's hopes. It is, after all, awkward and troublesome to be involved in another person's pain and despair. It is this inertia which has engulfed both the rich nations and the rich of the poor nations.

It is not a hopeless time to write in defence of public action. Proactive advocacy of public action was first enunciated by Lord J M Keynes to get the world out of the Great Depression of the 1930s.
But today it requires further reinforcement for the world in recent years has moved decisively towards unhesitating admiration of private enterprise and towards enlarging and advocating reliance on market mechanism.

The West appears to a majority in India as the source of all hope, a place of luxury, affluence and ease. The one-dimensional exchange reinforces the most simplification and damaging implication of the real relationship between the North and the South. What is suppressed in this traffic is the endurance, courage, heroism of millions of people in India for their daily survival and in uncelebrated struggles against injustice and insufficiency and the sacrifice and altruism of popular movements. The Western reform packages, many argue, demand their pound of flesh from the poor and the most vulnerable on the earth.

This apart, many would want India to reinforce itself before the global community of the huge reservoir of its spiritual wealth.
India is a country where all religions flourish, be it Hinduism, Islam, Christianity, Jainism, Sikhism or Buddhism. Their adherents have equal opportunity to profess what they believe in. It is inherent in India's culture that even the Dalai Lama was given asylum in this ancient land. The apostles of these religions prayed not only for benediction of planet Earth but the entire universe.

The common threat that runs through these religions is the belief that mankind is one. In an inter-linked and interdependent world coordinated action based on reciprocity can help solve economic problems better than isolational.

Vivekananda and Yogananda uncaged the soul of the West, enmeshed in mindless pursuit of materialism. India's messages to the spiritual world have travelled far and wide and its wisdom revered in many parts of the globe.

As the world braces for a tougher year ahead and people's problems mount perhaps Indian wisdom is of great relevance. In the global village not only material good but also ideas flow freely. A well-known Sanskrit Shloka reads as 'Asatoma Sadgamaya, Tamasoma Jyotirgamaya', which means take us from darkness to light.

Let there be peace and prosperity all over the globe.


Gurdeep Singh
Head of Business & Economy and Vice-President FFW
Gursingh111@rediffmail.com